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What are the chances that the Fed loses its leeway for ambiguity? Several medium-sized risks loom at once. The clearest is the sell-off in stocks related to artificial intelligence, both in America and, especially, in South Korea. When the dotcom bubble burst in 2000, the crash pulled the world economy into recession. Worryingly, today there are already signs of some big bets turning sour and causing investment firms to wobble. Situational Awareness, a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund, has taken spectacular losses over the past month. It was forced to unwind its positions so quickly that Citadel, a much larger fund, was able to scoop up most of its listed holdings at a discount.

Another danger lies in the Strait of Hormuz. Since America's shaky ceasefire with Iran fell apart, virtually no oil has traversed the strait, meaning prices have surged. A barrel of brent crude, the global benchmark, now fetches $80, up from around $70 at the start of July. Petrol prices in America are well over $4 per gallon, from $3 or so before the conflict started. And few prices bother American consumers more. Sharp increases can easily destabilise spending, inflation expectations and confidence in the Fed.

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Worse, Mr Trump seems determined to make Mr Warsh's life difficult. The stopgap authority the president used to impose tariffs, most of his previous ones having been struck down by the Supreme Court in February, expired on July 24th. Since then the White House has thrown up new, wide-ranging trade barriers to replace the expired ones, and has announced heftier levies on countries including Canada and Brazil. Companies are still yet to fully pass price increases from previous levies on to shoppers. Any further jumps could reverse recent declines in goods inflation.

Lots of potential not merely for something to happen, then, but for several things to happen at once. Perhaps the trickiest combination would be if stock markets calmed but oil and new tariffs pushed inflation up further. Usually, that would be a clear reason for the Fed's governors to consider raising rates. Some have already voted to hike. But tightening monetary policy just ahead of November's midterm elections would risk wrecking Mr Warsh's relationship with the White House, reigniting ugly spats over the Fed's independence. It is possible that, in an attempt to avoid this, Mr Warsh is already trying to get the market to do his tightening work for him. In other words, by loudly reiterating his commitment to the Fed's inflation target, without actually saying he will raise rates, he may hope that long-term bond yields will rise and stop him from needing to do so.